O1
Capital inflow durability
Whether the flow behind a move is structural or positional. Triggers: is this capital committed, or is it renting the position?
Opportune side
Signals that something is forming
Opportunity signals are not predictions. Each is a statement that a condition has changed in a way worth understanding — and each exists to trigger a question rather than an action.
Risk side
Signals that something is accumulating
Risk signals rarely announce themselves as risk. Most arrive looking like the continuation of a trend, which is precisely why the observation layer has to watch for them continuously.
Opportunity ledger
Four signals on the light side
Each of these describes a condition. None of them is a reason to act on its own — the framework's discipline is that a condition has to survive the questions on the other side of the page before it becomes a position.
O2
Sentiment leading price
Whether the mood has started to turn while the price has not yet registered it. Triggers: is this an early read, or is sentiment just chasing yesterday's move?
O3
Liquidity sufficient to exit
Whether the market can absorb the exit as well as the entry. Triggers: what does the position cost to leave, not just to open?
O4
Divergence within a sector
Whether assets that normally move together have started to separate. Triggers: has something changed in one of them specifically, or is this noise?
Risk ledger
Five signals on the dark side
These are the conditions SCRF exists to catch early — because a risk that is understood before it materialises is a cost, while the same risk understood afterwards is a loss.
R1
Correlation convergence
Assets that were diversifying each other beginning to move as one. Triggers: how many separate positions is this actually one trade?
R2
Liquidity deterioration
Spreads widening, depth thinning, or execution degrading before any price move has occurred. Triggers: what happens to the position if everyone exits at once?
R3
Concentration drift
Exposure to a single factor or counterparty growing without a deliberate decision to increase it. Triggers: when was this concentration chosen, and is it still intended?
R4
New macro variable
A factor entering the environment that existing theses do not price — policy, energy, geopolitics, or a change in the participant mix. Triggers: which current judgements no longer hold if this persists?
R5
Behavioural regime shift
The composition of market participants changing, invalidating patterns built on the previous mix. Triggers: was this pattern a property of the market, or of who happened to be in it?
How they combine
A signal is a question, not an instruction
The nine signals above are deliberately paired rather than ranked. A durable inflow that arrives with deteriorating liquidity is not a stronger buy signal — it is a different question, and one that the risk ledger is better equipped to answer.
The value of an observation network is not that it notices more. It is that it notices the same thing from two directions.
Related research
Read further
The frameworks behind these signals, and the components they sit alongside.
verdoraorionscrf.top
SCRF in depth
The Structural Cognitive Risk Framework as a complete risk system.
evaorion.topORION, next generation intelligent investing
The system from the investing side.
verdoraorion.topThe four-layer architecture
Each layer of ORION examined on its own terms.
jopsephtyronecotton.wikiQuant, AI and risk management
The research record behind the framework.